Timely Updates for

Takedown Scoring and Stats Users

Takedown App 5/7/24 Takedown App 5/7/24

Impact of NCAA Rule Changes on Scoring

Wrestlers were rewarded with more points for doing the same things. What else happened?

We just finished the first NCAA wrestling season with revised match point awards for takedowns and near falls.

What impact did those changes have in the first season after the changes?

We dug into our database of college wrestling matches to find out.*

Tech Falls Increased

With respect to match outcomes, decisions declined in favor of a significant increase in technical falls and, to a lesser extent, an increase in major decisions. Pins were unchanged.

NCAA Wrestling -- Impact of Rule Changes on Match Outcomes

Takedowns Decreased

Average number of takedowns and non-penalty scoring events per match both decreased from the T2 rules in effect prior to Sept 1 2023. Near falls are unchanged.

NCAA Wrestling -- Impact of Rules Changes on Scoring Activity

Match Scores Didn’t Change

The match scores occurring most frequently are roughly the same when taking into account the higher point values for a takedown. NCAA wrestling matches remain low scoring, tightly contested affairs in the T3 era.

NCAA Wrestling -- Impact of Rule Changes on Most Frequent Match Scores

Takeaways

The rule changes are shortening match and event durations by making a technical fall easier to achieve prior to regulation time expiration.
Because technical falls and major decisions are occuring more often, team scores should be higher under the new rules.
So far, there’s no evidence that increasing the match point values for takedowns and near falls generated any more ‘action’ or scoring activity. Indeed, scoring activity is down slightly with the T3 rules.
The NCAA wrestling rules committee hasn’t articulated a measurable goal for the rule changes, so we can’t objectively evaluate the results as desirable or not.

Here is the rationale recorded in the REPORT OF THE NCAA WRESTLING RULES COMMITTEE APRIL 17-19, 2023, ANNUAL MEETING:

”To better reflect the skill and energy required to secure a takedown.
Increasing the points awarded will incentivize wrestlers to take additional risk in the
neutral position, providing increased opportunities for both offensive and defensive
takedowns.”

Makes sense that three match points could provide more “incentive.” Whether there were more “opportunities for … takedowns” is a matter of opinion.
NFHS is adopting the NCAA scoring changes. Other than eliminating differences between high school and college rules — generally, a good idea in our view — what is the NFHS trying to accomplish?
It’s early in the game. We’ll take another look after the 2024-2025 season.

Improvements/Suggestions:

From around the wrestling-verse, we’ve seen some feedback. Here’s a summary:

Intermat: normalize data to account for matches that don’t last seven minutes such as pins and technical falls. The metric in this case would be scoring events per match clock minute or scoring events per seven match clock minutes (full match). This is possible and we will work on it.
Intermat: are the differences in the averages statistically significant? Good question. We will investigate.
Intermat: are takedowns the result of initiating or countering? This statistics isn’t recorded so not possible.
Facebook: how many are offensive versus defensive takedowns? This statistic isn’t recorded so not possible.
Facebook: was there an increase or decrease in stalemates? This statistic isn’t recorded so not possible.

* Roughly 6,700 matches generated by college level users of Takedown Scoring and Stats. Disqualifications, defaults and overtime excluded from analysis.

Takedown App 9/28/23 Takedown App 9/28/23

The Chart for Every Practice Room Wall

How important are takedowns?

We looked at over 2,000 matches for 63 wrestlers from six high school programs spread across the country and found that scoring more takedowns than your opponent is

How Important are Takedowns?

We looked at over 2,000 matches for 63 wrestlers from six high school programs spread across the country and found that scoring more takedowns than your opponent is highly correlated with having a winning season. Each wrestler had a minimum of ten matches and we considered only varsity events.

Winning Percentage v. Takedown Percentage

Thirty wrestlers scored on average the same or fewer takedowns than their opponent per match. Of these wrestlers, only three (10%) wrestlers had winning seasons. In contrast, thirty three wrestlers scored more takedowns, on average, than their opponent per match. Of these wrestlers, thirty one (94%) wrestlers had winning seasons.

The data supports what we instinctively know: takedown proficiency is critical to becoming a successful competitor. Next time an athlete says "prove it!", just post this graph on the practice room wall!

Statistics courtesty of Takedown Scoring and Stats app users.

Originally published October 2015.

Takedown App 9/19/23 Takedown App 9/19/23

What Does the Data Say About Short-Time Scoring?

To gauge the relevance of short-time scoring as a predictor of victory, we gathered data from 7,355 matches wrestled by 181 athletes at 13 high schools, all users of Takedown Scoring and Stats.

We filtered the data as follows:

Included varsity competition only
Included wrestlers with greater than 20 periods of short-time scoring data
Excluded exhibitions and forfeits from win-loss record

From this sample, we found the following:

With a negative Short-Time Scoring Average Point Advantage the probability of having a winning season is 41%.
With a zero or positive Average Point Advantage the probability of having a winning season is 82%.

This chart shows win percentage as a function of Average Point Advantage for this sample (each dot is a wrestler):

Stats: Short Time Scoring vs. Winning Percentage

And, while the relevance of short-time scoring is hard to deny, we wondered if improved short-time scoring performance — a positive and increasing Average Point Advantage — is simply a matter of experience. That is, does advantage increase as a function of cumulative match experience?

Surprisingly, in this sample, the answer is no. There’s no meaningful correlation between experience (measured in matches) and short-time scoring performance.

So, we know (at least in this sample) that short-time scoring proficiency can increase one’s chances of having a winning season. It also appears that short-time scoring performance doesn’t naturally improve with experience. Maybe scoring in short-time is a skill (or perhaps a mindset) requiring focus and practice.

Something to think about for coaches wanting to help wrestlers get to the next level.

If you’re interested in tracking short-time scoring performance, check out Takedown Scoring and Stats.

Takedown App 9/2/23 Takedown App 9/2/23

Emerging from the Darkness: High School Wrestling Participation 2022-2023

NFHS wrestling participation for 2022-2023. Coming out of the COVID darkness and into the light, boys rebounding to 2014-2015 levels. As expected, strong growth in girls programs with one concerning metric.

The NFHS recently released their high school sports participaton data for 2022-2023. Total wrestling participants was 305,593, a record in this millenia, representing 16% growth from the previous survey year. This growth far outpaces the year-year growth in total high school sports participation which was 3.1%.

Overall, boys wrestling rebounded to levels not seen since 2014-2015. While the number of boys teams has remained roughly constant, the number of participants increased by 11% to 256,466.

Girls wrestling continues to grow like a weed with 49,127 participants in 6,381 programs representing year-year growth of 55% and 33%, respectively. One in six high school wrestlers was a girl in 2022-2023. One cloud for girls wrestling is the anemic growth in average team size which was reported at 7.7 wrestlers per team. At historical growth rates, the average girls team won’t be capable of filling a minimum dual meet roster for another 20+ years.

Among high school sports participants, wrestling’s popularity has increased a bit. Wrestling’s share of all high school sports participants edged up slightly from 3.5% to 3.9%, with boys at 5.7% and girls at 1.5%.

Click on any chart to enlarge.